全文获取类型
收费全文 | 690篇 |
免费 | 181篇 |
国内免费 | 252篇 |
专业分类
测绘学 | 18篇 |
大气科学 | 441篇 |
地球物理 | 335篇 |
地质学 | 150篇 |
海洋学 | 104篇 |
天文学 | 8篇 |
综合类 | 16篇 |
自然地理 | 51篇 |
出版年
2024年 | 2篇 |
2023年 | 12篇 |
2022年 | 19篇 |
2021年 | 18篇 |
2020年 | 23篇 |
2019年 | 25篇 |
2018年 | 24篇 |
2017年 | 31篇 |
2016年 | 33篇 |
2015年 | 34篇 |
2014年 | 55篇 |
2013年 | 56篇 |
2012年 | 28篇 |
2011年 | 51篇 |
2010年 | 45篇 |
2009年 | 84篇 |
2008年 | 68篇 |
2007年 | 51篇 |
2006年 | 56篇 |
2005年 | 42篇 |
2004年 | 42篇 |
2003年 | 36篇 |
2002年 | 24篇 |
2001年 | 25篇 |
2000年 | 32篇 |
1999年 | 18篇 |
1998年 | 46篇 |
1997年 | 24篇 |
1996年 | 17篇 |
1995年 | 13篇 |
1994年 | 20篇 |
1993年 | 13篇 |
1992年 | 8篇 |
1991年 | 11篇 |
1990年 | 11篇 |
1989年 | 9篇 |
1988年 | 4篇 |
1987年 | 9篇 |
1984年 | 1篇 |
1983年 | 1篇 |
1982年 | 1篇 |
1976年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有1123条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
71.
经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法在合成近场强地震动中的联合运用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文采取将经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法相结合的方式,突出体现了各自方法的优点,通过经验格林函数法确定地震震源参数,用随机有限断层法计算参数、检验其合理性。利用1998年新疆阿图什M6.9级地震的肘L4.7级余震记录,合成了这次地震的最大余震Ms6.0级地震的加速度记录,并将合成的结果与实际记录在频域和时域做了对比,分析研究了地震动特征和这次最大余震的可能破裂特征。同时对经验格林函数法需进一步改进的方向进行了探讨。 相似文献
72.
Density-dependent dispersion in heterogeneous porous media Part I: A numerical study 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper, we describe carefully conducted numerical experiments, in which a dense salt solution vertically displaces fresh water in a stable manner. The two-dimensional porous media are weakly heterogeneous at a small scale. The purpose of these simulations, conducted for a range of density differences, is to obtain accurate concentration profiles that can be used to validate nonlinear models for high-concentration-gradient dispersion. In this part we focus on convergence of the computations, in numerical and statistical sense, to ensure that the uncertainty in the results is small enough.Concentration variances are computed, which give estimates of the uncertainty in local concentration values. These local variations decrease with increasing density contrast. For tracer transport, obtained longitudinal dispersivities are in accordance with analytical findings. In the case of high-density contrasts, stabilizing gravity forces counteract the growth of dispersive fingers, decreasing the effective width of the transition zone. For small log-permeability variances, the decrease of the apparent dispersivity that is found is in agreement with laboratory results for homogeneous columns. 相似文献
73.
1981年7月9-14日四川持续性暴雨分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
1981年7月9—14日岷江、沱江、涪江和嘉陵江流域出现持续性暴雨,并在四川省造成了历史上最严重的洪涝灾害。该文利用逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5°逐日再分析资料和日本GMS卫星资料反演的TBB资料进行诊断分析以探讨此次暴雨持续的原因。结果表明:由于对流层低层的暖平流和其他大尺度强迫,高空槽长时间维持在长江上游地区,有利于槽后冷空气下沉南伸,与来自孟加拉湾的暖湿气流在盆地交汇,致使西南涡东移甚慢,于7月11—14日活跃在四川盆地上空。当西南涡沿梅雨锋缓慢东移时,长生命史的中尺度对流系统(MCS)在岷江、沱江、涪江和嘉陵江流域连续多次生消,导致暴雨系统持续维持在这些地区。大尺度的强迫在暴雨区上空产生了大范围持续性的上升运动,而暴雨所需的强上升运动主要由大量局地对流有效位能释放提供。对流层低层持续的水汽辐合和位势不稳定能量的输送则为暴雨的持续提供了充足的水汽和能量。与2004年9月发生在四川盆地东部的严重致洪持续性暴雨比较发现,虽然两次持续性暴雨发生的环流背景不同,但暴雨发生的物理机理一致,暴雨过程中持续性的上升运动均主要由大尺度强迫等引起,而且两次持续性暴雨的发生均与来自孟加拉湾的强水汽输送有关。 相似文献
74.
A calibration method to solve the groundwater inverse problem under steady- and transient-state conditions is presented. The method compares kriged and numerical head field gradients to modify hydraulic conductivity without the use of non-linear optimization techniques. The process is repeated iteratively until a close match with piezometric data is reached. The approach includes a damping factor to avoid divergence and oscillation of the solution in areas of low hydraulic gradient and a weighting factor to account for temporal head variation in transient simulations. The efficiency of the method in terms of computing time and calibration results is demonstrated with a synthetic field. It is shown that the proposed method provides parameter fields that reproduce both hydraulic conductivity and piezometric data in few forward model solutions. Stochastic numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the method to the damping function and to the head field estimation errors. 相似文献
75.
An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this study, an interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic linear programming (IMSLP) method has been developed for water resources decision making under uncertainty. The IMSLP is a hybrid methodology of inexact optimization and multi-stage stochastic programming. It has three major advantages in comparison to the other optimization techniques. Firstly, it extends upon the existing multi-stage stochastic programming method by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Secondly, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. Thirdly, it cannot only handle uncertainties through constructing a set of scenarios that is representative for the universe of possible outcomes, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over the planning horizon. The developed IMSLP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of water allocation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives. 相似文献
76.
Peter J. Huber 《Journal of Geodesy》2006,80(6):283-303
The stochastic behavior of the length of day (LOD) process is analyzed and is modeled within statistical accuracy on a time-scale ranging from weeks to millennia by a three-component model comprising a global Brownian motion process, decadal fluctuations, and a 50-day Madden–Julian oscillation. While the model is intended to be phenomenological, some possible physical models underlying the three components are speculated upon. The model is applied to estimate long-range extrapolation errors. For example, it predicts a standard error of 1 h in the clock-time correction ΔT for extrapolation by 1,500 years from 500 to 2000 BC. 相似文献
77.
外强迫对热带季节内振荡影响的模拟研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
应用经过修改的NCAR CCM3模式和CAM2模式进行的数值实验结果以及NCEP的GFS模式的输出结果讨论了海温等外强迫作用对热带季节内振荡的影响.结果表明,热带季节内振荡是热带大气固有的内部变率.它是由大气内部过程的相互作用决定的.但外强迫对热带季节内振荡的强度、传播方向等有明显的影响.当外强迫没有变化时,模式可以模拟出与观测近似的低频振荡.当作为外强迫的海温和太阳辐射有年内季节变化时,模式模拟的季节内振荡则明显减弱.当海温与辐射不仅有季节变化而且有年际变化时,模式模拟的季节内振荡会进一步减弱.具有长周期的外强迫还会削弱季节内振荡中东移波动的能量而增加静止波的强度.在与海洋模式耦合的状态下,模式不受来自海洋的外强迫影响,而是与海洋构成一个耦合系统,可以产生最强的季节内振荡. 相似文献
78.
Ground water contaminant transport by nondivergence-free, unsteady and nonstationary velocity fields
Pore flow velocity is assumed to be a nondivergence-free, unsteady, and nonstationary random function of space and time for ground water contaminant transport in a heterogeneous medium. The laboratory-scale stochastic contaminant transport equation is up scaled to field scale by taking the ensemble average of the equation by using the cumulant expansion method. A new velocity correction, which is a function of mean pore flow velocity divergence, is obtained due to strict second order cumulant expansion (without omitting any term after the expansion). The field scale transport equations under the divergence-free pore flow velocity field assumption are also derived by simplifying the nondivergence-free field scale equation. The significance of the new velocity correction term is investigated on a two dimensional transport problem driven by a density dependent flow. 相似文献
79.
R. Mackay J.A. Morakinyo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(3):213-222
An industrial site is usually contaminated by accidental (and occasionally intentional) releases of pollutants to the environment
from various operations carried out on that site. Consequently, the pattern of contamination created during the life of the
site depends in part, at least, on the pattern of operations. Thus, the assessment of the pattern of contamination over the
site should be improved: if it is possible to identify the pattern of operations on the site, the duration of the different
activities and the perceived likelihood of releases from the different operations. A stochastic model has been developed that
can be used to simulate alternative realizations of contaminant releases (duration, extent and timing). The model employs
release zones associated with particular activities or groups of activities on the site and the areas of each of the zones
may be independent or overlapping. The period of activity in each zone is obtained from the site records, while the likelihood
and extent of contamination in each zone is inferred from an analysis of the contamination data obtained by point sampling.
The form of the model, the method of inference of the model parameter values from the site data and the application of the
model to the study site are presented. The release model has been developed as part of a suite of stochastic models for site
ground contamination analysis. The stochastic soil and transport models and the application of the integrated modelling system
are described in separate papers. 相似文献
80.
Shiang-Jen Wu Yeou-Koung Tung Jinn-Chuang Yang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,21(2):195-212
Occurrence of rainstorm events can be characterized by the number of events, storm duration, rainfall depth, inter-event time and temporal variation of rainfall within a rainstorm event. This paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model considering correlated non-normal random rainstorm characteristics, as well as dependence of various rainstorm patterns on rainfall depth, duration, and season. The proposed model was verified by comparing the derived rainfall depth–duration–frequency relations from the simulated rainfall sequences with those from observed annual maximum rainfalls based on the hourly rainfall data at the Hong Kong Observatory over the period of 1884–1990. Through numerical experiments, the proposed model was found to be capable of capturing the essential statistical features of rainstorm characteristics and those of annual extreme rainstorm events according to the available data. 相似文献